Kentucky Derby Past Performances
Past Performances and Statistical Analysis for Today’s Race, In Past Performances Favorites in the Kentucky Derby seem to do well. Since 1908 and the advent of pari-mutuel wagering, the statistical analysis data says that favorites have won 39 times for roughly a 35% percent strike rate, these are Kentucky Derby past performances to take into consideration when betting on the Derby. In the years before pari-mutuel betting between 1875 and 1907, favorites won 16 times for a near 50% percent win rate. Again, statistical analysis and past performances to help you pick your winning bet.
Kentucky Derby Past Performances: Derby Favorites
Tiz the Law at The Spa – Photo Courtesy of Susie Rasiher/NYRA
The shortest-priced favorite in Derby past performance and history was Bimelech, who finished second a 2-5 in 1940. Count Fleet (1943) and Citation (1948), who was coupled with stablemate Coaltown, were also 2-5 when they won the first jewel under the Twin Spires. Seattle Slew was 1-2 in 1977, as was Johnstown in 1939 and Spectacular Bid in 1978.
The statistical longest-priced favorite title in Kentucky Derby past performance belongs to Lookin at Lucky, who was sixth at odds of 6.30-1 in 2010. Harlan’s Holiday was 6-1 in 2002 and Sweetsouthernsaint was 5.50-1 in 2006. In 2013 Orb was the longest-priced favorite to win when he left the gate at odds of 5.40-1. Other longer favorites to win are Street Sense, who was 4.90-1 in 2007; and Always Dreaming, who was 4.70-1 in 2017.
Kentucky Derby Statistical Winners
Only one Derby winner since 1908 broke his maiden in the Derby and this year, with time added to the Derby trail thanks to the Covid-19 pandemic, many of the Derby probables have had extra time and extra starts to make the gate, things they might not have had in a traditionally run Derby. Some tracks send out more Derby winners than others, so following is a list of track success where Derby winners broke their maidens, in alphabetical order.
Kentucky Derby Past Performances by Track
Aqueduct: 9
Arlington Park: 5
Belmont Park: 16
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Calder: 2
Churchill Downs: 4
Del Mar: 3
Delaware Park: 3
Fort Erie: 1
Gulfstream Park: 3
Hialeah: 7
Hollywood Park: 5
Keeneland: 2
Pimlico: 1
Santa Anita: 9
Saratoga: 10
Tampa Bay Downs 1
Turfway Park: 2
Woodbine: 3
Past Performances: Last winner to have broken their maiden at each track
Aqueduct: 2013 winner Orb
Arlington Park: 2007 winner Street Sense
Belmont Park: 2010 winner Super Saver
Calder: 1992 winner Lil E. Tee
Churchill Downs: 1933 winner Brokers Tip (also broke maiden in the Derby)
Del Mar: 2015 winner American Pharoah
Delaware Park: 2006 winner Barbaro
Fort Erie: 1964 winner Northern Dancer
Gulfstream Park: 2019 winner Country House
Hialeah: 1975 winner Foolish Pleasure
Hollywood Park: 2014 winner California Chrome
Keeneland: 2011 winner Animal Kingdom
Meadowlands: 1981 winner Pleasant Colony
Parx Racing: 2004 winner Smarty Jones
Pimlico: 1979 winner Spectacular Bid
Santa Anita: 2018 winner Justify
Saratoga: 2008 winner Big Brown
Saratoga (dirt): 1988 winner Winning Colors
Saratoga (male on dirt): 1962 winner Decidedly
Tampa Bay Downs” 2017 winner Always Dreaming
Turfway Park: 1987 winner Alysheba
Woodbine: 2009 winner Mine That Bird
On Synthetic: 2011 winner Animal Kingdom
On Turf: 2008 winner Big Brown
Foreign: 1976 winner Bold Forbes (El Commandante, Puerto Rico)
How many starts did it take for Derby winners to break their maiden?
Past Performances, Kentucky Derby winners who broke maiden in first start: 44
Past Performances, Kentucky Derby winners who broke maiden in second start: 26
Past Performances, Kentucky Derby winners who broke maiden in first or second start: 69
Past Performances, Kentucky Derby winners who broke maiden in third start: 16
Past Performances, Kentucky Derby winners who broke maiden in 4+ starts: 17
Past Performances, Kentucky Derby winners who broke maiden on turf: 3
Past Performances, Kentucky Derby winners who broke maiden on synthetic: 4
Past Performances, Kentucky Derby winners who broke maiden on turf (since 1914): Sea Hero (1993), Barbaro (2006) & Big Brown (2008)
Past Performances, Kentucky Derby winners who broke maiden on a synthetic surface (since 1914): Mine That Bird (2009), Animal Kingdom (2011), I’ll Have Another (2012), California Chrome (2014) & American Pharoah (2015)
Past Performances, Derby winners who broke maiden in a maiden claiming race (since 1914): Charistmatic (1999) & Mine That Bird (2009)
Maiden Winners (since 1929 or last 90)
Past Performances, Kentucky Derby winners who broke maiden in April: 8
Past Performances, Kentucky Derby winners who broke maiden in May: 6
Past Performances, Kentucky Derby winners who broke maiden in June: 11
Past Performances, Kentucky Derby winners who broke maiden in July: 10
Past Performances, Kentucky Derby winners who broke maiden in August: 11
Past Performances, Kentucky Derby winners who broke maiden in September: 11
Past Performances, Kentucky Derby winners who broke maiden in October: 9 (including 8 of last 24)
Past Performances, Kentucky Derby winners who broke maiden in November: 7
Past Performances, Kentucky Derby winners who broke maiden in December: 0
Past Performances, Kentucky Derby winners who broke maiden in January.: 8
Past Performances, Kentucky Derby winners who broke maiden in February: 1 (latest February 18, except 1933)
Past Performances, Kentucky Derby winners who broke maiden in March: 0
Past Performances, Kentucky Derby winners who broke maiden in April: 0
Past Performances, Kentucky Derby winners who broke maiden prior to December: 74 (82.2%)
About two-thirds of the Kentucky Derby winners broke their maiden in their first or second start, including 16 of the last 20 years.
Twelve maidens have run in the Kentucky Derby since 1937 – Bodexpress, 2019, 13th; Sonneteer, 2017, 16th; Trojan Nation, 2016, 16th; Nationalore, 1998, 9th; Pendleton Ridge, 1990, 13th; Great Redeemer, 1979, 10th; Fourulla, 1971, 19th; The Chosen One ,1959, 14th; Flamingo, 1958; 13th; On The Mark, 1950, 8th; Senecas Coin, 1949, 14th; and Bert G., 1945, 14th
Miriam Lee has always been a horse racing fan thanks to trips to the tracks in her home state of Maryland with her father as kid. She owns an OTTB and is an advocate for promoting the sport among her peers. Miriam studies communication arts at Hood College and will receive her master’s degree in 2021, which she plans to use for a career in screenwriting. Her all-time favorite racehorse is Man O War.