Everyone is confident and cautious. The owners. The trainers. The jockeys. No matter the odds, no matter the opposition, no matter the weather, they all have a chance to win the $5 million Kentucky Derby (G1).
Sierra Leone
Kentucky Derby 150: A Longshot, or Fierceness versus Sierra Leone?
When the 20-horse gate springs open Saturday night, Fierceness will likely be the betting favorite for two-time Derby winning trainer Todd Pletcher and three-time Derby winner John Velazquez, both Hall of Famers.
The Florida Derby (G1) winner leaves from post 16 and the plan is to get near the front without any early jostling for position. He won at first asking over a muddy track at Saratoga and ran seventh over a sloppy track in Champagne (G1) at Aqueduct in his second start.
The likely second-betting choice is Sierra Leone for trainer Chad Brown and jockey Tyler Gaffalione. The $2.3 million colt is a deep closer, and after breaking from post 2 you’ll probably find him well back in the pack for much of the race before barreling down the stretch. Sierra Leone is a mudder – he was a closer second to Dornoch in a muddy Remsen (G2) and won the Risen Star (G2) in slop.
Cox, Prat (aboard Catching Freedom) hope to cross finish line first
Catching Freedom. Coady Photo.
Catching Freedom, the Louisiana Derby (G2) winner, gives both trainer Brad Cox and jockey Flavien Prat a solid chance to win a Derby, this time by crossing the finish line first.
Cox trained Mandaloun, who ran second in the 2021 Derby but was declared the winner after Medina Spirit was disqualified for a medication violation a week later; Prat’s Derby win came in 2019 with Country House, who finished second behind Maximum Security, who was DQ’d for interference.
“We’re looking forward to crossing the wire first,’’ said Cox, who also sends out Just a Touch. “We didn’t experience the thrill of victory with being placed first through a DQ. We’re looking forward to finishing first someday, hopefully Saturday, and experience that thrill.”
Japan bids for first Derby win
Forever Young. Coady Photo.
Forever Young, winner of the UAE Derby (G2) and unbeaten in five races, gives Japan a good shot at winning the Derby for the first time. The colt seems comfortable after the long journey to America, but he’s a huge question mark – can he run a winning race at 1 ¼ miles against a lineup of Grade 1 winners over a wet track?
West Saratoga gets trainer Demiritte to first Derby
There are many intriguing storylines in this Derby, highlighted by Larry Demiritte, the trainer fighting cancer who sends out West Saratoga. He’ll be the first Black trainer in 35 years to saddle a Derby starter and could be the first Black trainer or jockey to win since 1902 with Jimmy Winkfield.
“I feel like I’m representing a lot of people,’’ he said.
Lukas, 88, goes for fifth Derby win
Trainer D. Wayne Lukas goes after his fifth Derby win with Just Steel, a viable contender who ran second in the Arkansas Derby (G1) behind Muth.
No Baffert, no Baffert-trained horses in Derby
Which leads us to who won’t be at the Derby: six-time winner and Hall of Famer Bob Baffert. He trains Muth and several other top 3-year-olds but remains suspended by Churchill Downs, Inc, since his Medina Spirit was disqualified after finishing first in 2021.
Upgrades to Derby purse, paddock area
Saffie Joseph Jr.
Saffie Joseph, Jr. is back in the Derby with longshot Catalytic, a distant second to Fierceness in the Florida Derby. A year ago, he was preparing Lord Miles for the Derby before two of his other horses died at Churchill Downs; he was suspended, and Lord Miles was scratched.
He’s just happy to be back, even if he’s not as confident about winning as just about everyone else.
“On paper, it’s hard to see that he [Catalytic] can win,” Joseph said. “But in racing, you have to have a hope and a dream.”