A year ago, Luis Saez unseated Tyler Gaffalione for the jockey’s title at the prestigious Keeneland fall meet, winning three races on the final day for a 21-20 edge.
The meet opens Friday (Oct. 6) and the top two jockeys the past five years at Keeneland will be dueling again, beginning with several Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In’’ races on opening day.
If you consider jockey success at certain tracks in your handicapping, here’s the lineup:
Saez has the call on Sibelius in the $350,000 Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix (G2), Time to Dazzle in the $350,000 Jessamine (G2) and Candied in the $600,000 Darley Alcibiades (G1).
Tyler Gaffalione 4 wins 1-12. Photo courtesy of Ryan Thompson
Gaffalione rides Bango in the Phoenix, Smooth Waves in the Jessamine and Emery in the Darley Alcibiades (although Emery is now being re-routed to the Grade 1 Frizette at Aqueduct on Saturday).
Bango is the 5-2 morning-line favorite in the Phoenix and Time to Dazzle is the 5-2 favorite in the Jessamine. Let the jockey’s race begin.
A preview of the “Win and You’re In” races at Keeneland’s opening day:
$600,000 Darley Alcibiades (G1), 1 1/16 miles, 2-year-old fillies
A field of nine is entered with the winner earning an all-fees paid, automatic berth into the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) at Santa Anita on Nov. 3.
Brightwork, a brilliant 4-for-4 after her win in the Spinaway (G1) at Saratoga on Sept. 3, is the morning-line 9-5 favorite.
V V’s Dream, 2-for-3 with a last-out 8 ¾-length win in the Pocahontas (G3) at Churchill Downs on Sept. 16, is the 5-2 second choice. Her only defeat was a half-length loss to Brightwork in the Debutante Stakes at Ellis Park on July 2.
Irad Ortiz, Jr. rides Brightwork out of post 7 for trainer John Ortiz, while Brian Hernandez, Jr. Is aboard V V’s Dream for trainer Ken McPeek.
Brad Cox, who trains Frizette-bound Emery, still has a horse in the race with 8-1 Alpine Princess.
Candied, a winner in her debut at the Spa on Aug. 20, is 6-1 for trainer Todd Pletcher, with a strong chance to give the Hall of Famer his first win this race.
Ken McPeek, who trains V V’s Dream is looking for a sixth victory in the Darley Alcibiades.
The picks: 1 Candied 2 Brightwork 3 V V’s Dream
The field for the $600,000 Darley Alcibiades (G1), from the rail out, with jockey, trainer, odds:
1 Alys Beach (Flavien Prat, Tom Amoss), 20-1
2 Crazy Cami (G Corrales, Mike Maker), 30-1
3 Candied (Luis Saez, Todd Pletcher), 6-1
4 Wine On Tap (John Velazquez, Todd Pletcher), 20-1
5 V V’s Dream (Brian Hernandez, Jr., Ken McPeek), 5-2
6 Alpine Princess (Florent Geroux, Brad Cox), 8-1
7 Brightwork (Irad Ortiz, Jr., John Ortiz), 9-5
8 Emery (Tyler Gaffalione, Brad Cox), 4-1
9 Shimmering Allure (Julien Leparoux, Ken McPeek), 15-1
$350,000 Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix (G2), 6 furlongs, 3-year-olds and up
Manny Wah, who made a daring stretch run to win the Phoenix by a neck over Long Range Toddy, is back to try to win the race again.
Top Gunner at Oaklawn Park
The 7-year-old is 0-for-5 since the victory and is 6-1 for trainer Wayne Catalano. Bango, a front-runner who has finished first or second in his last eight races, is the 5-2 favorite. He is 5-3-2-0 in 2023 with earnings of nearly $500,000.
A field of 11 is entered, including three others who ran in last year’s Phoenix: Top Gunner (20-1), who was third; Sibelius (12-1), who was fourth; and Necker Island (30-1), who was sixth.
Nakatomi, with Irad Ortiz, Jr., in the irons, comes in off a win in an allowance optional claimer at Saratoga in July. The 4-year-old gelding is 4-1 for trainer Wesley Ward, who picks his spots well. He is 3-for-4 at Keeneland.
Corey Lanerie, who rides Manny Wah, is one win away from 5,000 career victories.
The winner earns a berth in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) at Santa Anita on Nov. 4.
The picks: 1 Nakatomi 2 Bango 3 Sibelius
The field for the $350,000 Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix (G2), from the rail out, with jockey, trainer, odds:
1 Hoist the Gold (John Velazquez, Dallas Stewart), 8-1
2 Many Wah (Corey Lanerie, Wayne Catalano), 6-1
3 Sibelius (Luis Saez, Jeremiah O’Dwyer), 12-1
4 Gulfstream Way (Ricardo Santana, Jr., Norm Casse), 8-1
5 Top Gunner (Gabe Saez, John Ortiz), 20-1
6 Necker Island (Flavien Pratt, Chris Hartman), 30-1
7 Bango (Tyler Gaffalione, Greg Foley), 5-2
8 Nakatomi (Irad Ortiz, Jr., Wesley Ward) 4-1
9 Doctor Oscar (Alonso Quinonez, Tim Padilla), 7-2
10 Baytown Bear (Jane Elliott, Pat McEntee), 50-1
11 Voodoo Zip (James Graham, Roddina Barrett), 30-1
$350,000 Jessamine (G2), 1 1/16 miles, 2-year-old fillies
Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse may have himself a classy filly in Time to Dazzle. The gray daughter of Not This Time comes into the race off a three-length debut victory at Woodbine at a mile on the turf.
Although she is the 5-2 favorite, Crown Imperial at 6-1 may be the filly to beat. The daughter of Classic Empire already has five career starts and five different tracks, and a resume of two wins, two seconds, and a third.
Last out, the John Ortiz trainee won the Pepsi Untapable Stakes at Kentucky Downs on Sept. 13. Ricardo Santana, Jr., has the call leaving from post 4.
The winner gains an automatic berth in the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) at Santa Anita on Nov. 3.
The picks: Crown Imperial 2 Smooth Waves 3 Time to Dazzle
The field for the $350,000 Jessamine (G2), from the rail out, with jockey, trainer, odds:
1 Smooth Waves (Tyler Gaffalione, Mike Maker), 7-2
2 Time to Dazzle (Luis Saez, Mark Casse), 5-2
3 Moonlight Gambler (Luan Machado, Ben Colebrook), 30-1
4 Crown Imperial (Ricardo Santana, Jr., John Ortiz), 6-1
5 Toupie (Flavien Pratt, H. Graham Motion), 20-1
6 Abeyance (James Graham, Eoin Harty (15-1)
7 Bella Haze (Joel Rosario, Carlos Santamaria), 10-1
8 Pharoah’s Wine (Martin Chuan, Dale Romans), 12-1
9 Appellate (Irad Ortiz, Jr., Todd Pletcher), 10-1
10 Buchu (Martin Garcia, Philip Bauer), 4-1
11 Asternia (Julien Leparoux, Randy Morse), 30-1