As most regular readers know, I’m kind of a stats geek.
Not only do I maintain my own horse racing databases, but most of my “handicapping” these days is based on what I’ve gleaned from gathering all this information over the years.
Now, I’ll be frank (just don’t call me Shirley): Because it requires a lot of manual input, keeping up these databases is not easy nor, by any stretch of the imagination, fun. In fact, it is very common for me to fall days or even weeks behind, as other things — things that pay the bills — take precedence.
However, it’s always a kick when I finally do catch up and get to crunch the numbers. And given that I often offer free handicapping reports to US Racing clients, I thought I would share some of these digits with you.
I’ll start with my Race Report Cards. From July to September of this year the automatic selections performed as follows:
Perfect GPA Selection
Number: 40
Winners: 23
Rate: 57.5%
$2 Net Return: $2.15
ROI: +7.25%
Poor Favorite Pick
Number: 33
Winners: 9
Rate: 27.3%
$2 Net Return: $2.36
ROI: +17.88%
Dominant Contender
Number: 51
Winners: 31
Rate: 60.8%
$2 Net Return: $1.97
ROI: -1.57%
ALL ANGLES
Number: 124
Winners: 63
Rate: 50.8%
$2 Net Return: $2.13
ROI: +6.45%
Next, let’s take a look at the automatic selections from my Win Factor Reports:
Key Selections
Number: 37
Winners: 21
Rate: 56.8%
$2 Net Return: $1.92
ROI: -3.78%
Prime Overlays
Number: 37
Winners: 11
Rate: 29.7%
$2 Net Return: $2.16
ROI: +7.84%
Sharp Contenders
Number: 94
Winners: 36
Rate: 38.3%
$2 Net Return: $2.03
ROI: +1.33%
Speed Racers
Number: 79
Winners: 50
Rate: 63.3%
$2 Net Return: $2.50
ROI: +25.13%
ALL ANGLES
Number: 247
Winners: 118
Rate: 47.8%
$2 Net Return: $2.18
ROI: +9.15%
Interestingly, all of the Win Factor Report angles showed a profit to place, making them ideal exacta keys.
Another angle that I like was derived from my Pace Profile Report. This report is strictly a handicapping tool, so it doesn’t contain any automatic plays, but I’ve had a lot of success adhering to the following rules:
- Best last-race late speed ration (LSR) of zero or greater.
- Last-race form rating of at 75% or greater.
- Last race over today’s general track surface (dirt/synthetic or turf) within the past 30 days.
- Today’s projected early speed ration (ESR) is less than zero.
Number: 206
Winners: 53
Rate: 25.7%
$2 Net Return: $2.63
ROI: +31.36%