Blue Grass Odds, Picks: Just a Touch Seeks Winning Touch

Springtime in Kentucky means Derby Fever, which soon will peak for the 150^th Run for The Roses on May 4 at Churchill Downs.

On Saturday, Keeneland will stage its Derby prep, the $1 million, 1 1/8-mile Blue Grass Stakes (G1). Considering the race’s prestige, you might assume its winners have excelled on the first Saturday in May.

Nope.

Strike the Gold – 33 years ago – is the last horse to hit the Blue Grass-Kentucky Derby double. In recent years, three Blue Grass champions ran well on Derby Day without winning — Zandon (third, 2022), Essential Quality (third, 2021) and Good Magic (second, 2018). Tapit Trice ran seventh at Churchill Downs last year, the latest Keeneland hero to flop there.

This year’s Blue Grass features Dornoch and Sierra Leone, horses on everyone’s top 10 Derby list. It’s a rematch of a thriller in the 1 1/8-mile Remsen Stakes (G3) on Dec. 2 at muddy Aqueduct. Pacesetter Dornoch won by a nose, battling back gamely along the rail after deep closer Sierra Leone went by him near the eighth pole.

Dornoch and Sierra Leone are the early favorites f0r the Blue Grass Stakes

Each won his 3-year-old debut, with Dornoch leading throughout the 1 1/16-mile Fountain of Youth (G2) on March 2 at Gulfstream after Sierra Leone went last to first Feb. 17 in the 1 1/8-mile Risen Star (G2) in the slop at the Fair Grounds. Sierra Leone (2-1, post 10) is the Blue Grass morning-line favorite, with Dornoch (post 4) next at 3-1 and new shooter Just a Touch (post 6, 7-2).

Dornoch proved very little going wire to wire at 1-5 odds in the weak, scratch-depleted Fountain of Youth. Sierra Leone impressed in the Risen Star, coming from far back and surging 10 wide into the stretch. He looked even better after also-rans Catching Freedom (third) and Honor Marie (fifth) ran 1-2 in the Louisiana Derby (G2).

Sierra Leone (trained by Chad Brown) and Dornoch (Danny Gargan) are the ones to beat but maybe not to bet. By post time, both may be below 2-1. If you find it hard to choose between them, check out Just a Touch, who’s 1-for-2 with upside and training brilliantly at Keeneland.

Although it will be his first time on a fast track, past a mile and going two turns, his pedigree (by Justify out of a Tapit mare) screams distance. The clockers called his last two 5-furlong works “very impressive,” and timed one final quarter in a blazing 22 3/5 seconds.

His speed figures also match up well with Dornoch and Sierra Leone. Trainer Brad Cox told drf.com “We think it’s a very good spot for (Just a Touch).” Cox said he’s looking forward to running him on a fast, dry track, and Saturday’s forecast looks promising.

Just a Touch’s solid second in the mile Gotham (G3) at Aqueduct should set him up well. Ideally, he’ll stalk a likely quick pace, get first run on Sierra Leone and hang on to qualify for the Derby. Three-year-olds can improve dramatically in springtime, so you never can tell.

The picks: 1 Just a Touch 2 Sierra Leone 3 Dornoch  

The field for the $1 million Blue Grass Stakes (G1), from the rail out, with jockey, trainer, morning line odds:

 1 Top Conor (Jose Ortiz, Chad Brown), 15-1

2 Be You (irad Ortiz, Jr., Todd Pletcher), 8-1

3 Seize the Grey (Nik Juarez, D. Wayne Lukas), 20-1

4 Dornoch (Luis Saez, Danny Gargan), 3-1

5 Good Money (Javier Castellano, Chad Brown), 20-1

6 Just a Touch (Florent Geroux, Brad Cox,), 7-2

7 Lat Long (Brina Hernandez, Jr., Ken McPeek), 30-1

8 Epic Ride (Adam Beschizza,  John Ennis), 20-1

9 Mugatu  (Joe Talamo, Jeff Engler), 30-1

10 Sierra Leone (Tyler Gaffalione, Chad Brown), 2-1

11 Encino (Flavien Prat, Brad Cox), 12-1