Saratoga’s stakes spotlight is on the 3-year-old fillies Saturday in the $600,000 Alabama Stakes (G1) and the $200,000 Lake Placid Stakes (G2).
Lake Placid contender Miss Justify
If trainer Kenny McPeek had pointed the brilliant Thorpedo Anna to the Alabama Stakes, she would have been a 1-5 favorite in an expected coronation. Instead, she’ll face the boys Aug. 24 in the Travers Stakes (G1) and losing her star power transformed the Alabama into a good betting race.
Cherie DeVaux will try to continue her rise to elite status when she runs I Feel Pretty in the Lake Placid Stakes. She gave DeVaux her first Grade 1 win last September at Woodbine, and the daughter of Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) hero Karakontie has been on a roll ever since.
For those who like to bet on horse racing, here’s a horse-by-horse analysis of each race from the rail out, with trainer, jockey and odds in parentheses:
$600,000 ALABAMA STAKES (Race 10, 5:43 ET post time)
(1¼ miles, 3-year-old fillies)
1. INTRICATE
(Brendan Walsh, Tyler Gaffalione, 6-1)
She’s 0-for-4 in stakes this year after promising 2-year-old season. Third or fourth at best.
Betting verdict: Toss
2. CHATALAS
(Mark Glatt, Frankie Dettori, 8-1)
Led throughout Grade 3 Indiana Oaks last time in season debut. Pace factor as long as she lasts.
Betting verdict: Toss
3. POWER SQUEEZE
(Jorge Delgado, Javier Castellano, 9-2)
Daughter of Belmont Stakes champ Union Rags won five of last seven, losing only to Thorpedo Anna. Pedigree says she should get 1¼ miles.
Betting verdict: Win contender
4. JUST BASKING
(Ian Wilkes, Chris Landeros, 5-1)
Deep closer won by daylight at 1¼ miles in third start, so distance is not a question. Stamina inherited from sire Arrogate and grandsire Blame. Serious threat.
Betting verdict: Win contender
5. AMERICA’S VOW
(Timothy Hamm, Junior Alvarado, 20-1)
Just won an optional claimer, which is where she belongs. Never gets bet, lost two stakes by 38¾ lengths.
Betting verdict: Toss
6. MISS JUSTIFY
(Todd Pletcher, Flavien Prat, 6-1)
Daughter of hot sire Justify tries two turns in graded stakes debut, a doubly tough challenge. Pletcher-Prat pairing will make her an underlay.
Betting verdict: Toss
7. CANDIED
(Todd Pletcher, Manny Franco, 7-5)
Gritty second chasing Thorpedo Anna in Coaching Club American Oaks ensures she’ll be a short-priced favorite. Best speed numbers in the field, but not sure she’s bred to stay 10 furlongs.
Betting verdict: Win contender
8. NEON ICON
(Rusty Arnold, Luis Saez, 15-1)
Won at 10 furlongs in second career start, so distance not a problem, but fifth in Indiana Oaks last time doesn’t inspire confidence.
Betting verdict: Toss
The picks: 1 Just Basking 2 Candied 3 Power Squeeze
$200,000 LAKE PLACID STAKES (Race 9, 5:04 ET post time)
(1 1/16 miles, inner turf, 3-year-old fillies)
1. DEEP SATIN
(Cherie DeVaux, Jose Ortiz, 10-1)
Recent course-and-distance maiden winner takes quantum leap in class. In too deep.
Betting verdict: Toss
2. GRAYOSH
(Chad Brown, Flavien Prat, 8-1)
She’s 1-for-5 and a rare weak runner for potent trainer-jockey combo. Not close in only stakes.
Betting verdict: Toss
3. GALA BRAND
(Bill Mott, Jose Lezcano, 20-1)
Deep closer was 2-for-2 last year and looked like a rising star before losing her mojo. Lost four in a row; not close in two stakes this year.
Betting verdict: Toss
4. DE REGRESO
(Antonio Sano, Luis Saez, 15-1)
Tries tougher after fading late in Grade 3. Aiming too high.
Betting verdict: Toss
5. SPALIDAY
(Chad Brown, Frankie Dettori, 12-1)
Win in listed stakes at Monmouth last out was her best effort yet. Eligible to improve for world-class connections.
Betting verdict: Use underneath
6. LES REYS
(Christophe Clement, Joel Rosario, 10-1)
Shipper arrives off two wins in big-field handicaps in France. Wild card makes stakes debut.
Betting verdict: Use underneath
7. I FEEL PRETTY
(Cherie DeVaux, John Velazquez, 2-1)
Cuts back in distance after solid third at 1 3/16 miles to subsequent Grade 1 winner Cinderella’s Dream. Otherwise, she’s half a length from being 4-for-4 on grass, with the loss a solid third in the Breeders’ Cup. Intimidating favorite.
Betting verdict: Beat her to win
8. ORI
(Michelle Nevin, Kendrick Carmouche, 50-1)
Wired maiden claimers on slow pace. Cheap speed looks like a pace casualty.
Betting verdict: Toss
9. PROCTOR STREET
(Brendan Walsh, Tyler Gaffalione, 8-1)
Deep closer (2-for-2) makes stakes debut after taking optional claimer with strong late-pace number. Should handle class rise.
Betting verdict: Use underneath
10. DYNAMIC PRICING
(Chad Brown, Irad Ortiz Jr., 6-1)
Inconsistent, lost three of last four, and will be overbet due to A-list connections. Post 10 on inner turf not helpful. Might win but others are preferred.
Betting verdict: Use underneath
11 .BEAUTIFUL LOVE
(Charlie Appleby, Manny Franco, 4-1)
Dubai shipper makes class jump off six-month layoff. Outside post and weak credentials for a Godolphin runner.
Betting verdict: Toss
The picks: 1 I Feel Pretty 2 Proctor Street 3 Dynamic Pricing
MAIN TRACK ONLY
Todd Pletcher trains MANAMA GOLD (5-1), 3-for-3 on dirt in Dubai, where she won a Group 3. Pletcher also has CAMERA (5-2), 1-for-4 on dirt. D. Wayne Lukas’ slumping LEMON MUFFIN (6-1) has lost five straight.