New York racing once again is ready to move downstate for the start of the Belmont Park Fall Championship Meet, which begins on Friday, Sept. 7, and continues to Sunday, Oct. 28. With 44 stakes races worth over $10 million in purses, there are few race meets on the calendar as important as the Belmont Fall Championship Meet, which contains all of New York’s key prep races for the Breeders’ Cup. Belmont Park also offers top-notch racing day in and day out throughout the early fall season.
For the average horseplayer, Belmont can be a better meet than Saratoga because it is easier to nail down winners at Belmont, thanks to a smaller, more concentrated sample of horses and horsemen that are easier to keep tabs on. Field sizes at Belmont can be expected to be somewhat smaller than they were at Saratoga, especially on the dirt, but Belmont still will have plenty to offer horseplayers, including the best 2-year-olds, the best turf racing of the season and the best and most widely-inclusive stakes program of the fall season.
The Belmont Fall Meet shares even more similarities with the Saratoga meet than it does with the Belmont Spring/Summer Meet. This is because the 2-year-old program is such a big part of racing during the fall at Belmont Park, but virtually non-existent at Belmont in the spring. Not only is there juvenile racing at Belmont in the fall, but the track’s 2-year-old racing program happens to be the best juvenile racing in the country at this time of year.
Use Handicapping Trends From Saratoga for Winning Tips at Belmont
Most of the horses running at the Belmont Fall Championship Meet will be exiting starts at Saratoga. When evaluating horses’ form from Saratoga when they show up back at Belmont Park in the fall, one set of trends to learn from are the post position and running style trends that affected the recent Saratoga meet. Many horses racing at Belmont will show up with past performances that look either better, or worse, than they really are based on their favorable or non-favorable trips and posts from recent starts up at Saratoga.
Here is my personal list of main track biases that had an effect on the recently-concluded Saratoga meet:
Noel Michaels’ 2018 Saratoga Track Biases
Aug. 24 – Helped to be on or close to the pace.
Aug. 20 – Had to stay off the rail to win.
Aug. 19 – Speed and the rail were good.
Aug. 18 – Drying track favored speed and the rail.
Aug. 17 – Helped to be on or close to the pace.
Aug. 10 – Helped to be on or close to the pace.
Aug. 5 – Outside rally wide bias. Dead rail.
Aug. 4 – Outside rally wide bias races 1-8.
Aug. 1 – Helped to be on or close to the pace.
July 26 – Strong speed bias on sloppy track.
July 23 – Horses avoided the rail on a sloppy track.
July 22 – Helped to be on or close to the pace.
July 21 – Speed and the rail did well.
July 20 – Speed and the rail looked good.
On the turf, remember that, at Saratoga just like at Belmont, inside posts, particularly the rail, are bad in turf sprints. The rail did win some turf sprints run at Saratoga, mostly in fields smaller than 8 starters or with horses that were able to clear on the lead, but overall, posts 1, 2 and 3 were all very bad in turf sprints with fields larger fields. Therefore, upgrade the chances of any horse that was disadvantaged with an inside turf sprint post at Saratoga when they make their next starts at Belmont, unless those horses once again draw inside in a turf sprint at Belmont.
In turf routes run at Saratoga this year, post positions were remarkably fair on the inner turf. The Mellon (outer) turf course, however, was a completely different story.
For horses exiting Saratoga Mellon turf routes, keep in mind that the outside posts were a disaster this season and you needed to draw posts 1-6 in order to have a decent chance to win.
Horses breaking outside post 6 on the Mellon turf at Saratoga went a combined 2-for-75 (2.6 percent) and not one horse won from those posts the final three weeks of the meet.
Therefore, upgrade those outside-drawn Saratoga turf routers from the Mellon course when you see them in their next starts at Belmont.