Here’s some handicapping intel on the $3 million, 1 1/8-mile Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1), whose eighth running is Saturday at Gulfstream Park. Post time is 5:40 p.m. ET.
Pegasus World Cup History
Before Art Collector paid $33 last year, the biggest Pegasus win price was $8.80 (Mucho Gusto, 2020). No other winner went off at more than 9-5, and only Mucho Gusto hadn’t won a Grade 1. This year’s field has just one Grade 1 winner, National Treasure.
Track bias
No Pegasus champion was a deep closer, a style that rarely works at speed-favoring Gulfstream.
Culling the field
Four long shots come from far back: O’Connor, Dynamic One, Senor Buscador, and Il Miracolo. A win bet on any of them would be unwise. Also avoid Nimitz Class, Grand Aspen, and Crupi, which don’t class up and/or have distance limitations. If also-eligible Castle Chaos scratches in, he doesn’t belong.
Hoist the Gold, wire-to-wire hero of the Cigar Mile, will be a pace factor, but sprinting is his game. Faded to fourth in his only two-turn try, so 9 furlongs will be too far.
Trademark
He earned his career-best figures at 1 1/8 miles last fall at Churchill Downs, taking the Clark by a nose and losing the Lukas Classic by a head. A win would be a surprise, but he fits underneath in exotics.
National Treasure
The 2023 Preakness winner and 9-5 morning-line favorite screams underlay. He narrowly lost last out to superstar Cody’s Wish in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1). That was his career-best figure, but it was his fourth straight loss, and he’s 1-for-9 around two turns.
The Preakness had a very weak field, and the National Treasure walked on the lead (:48 4/5, 1:13 2/5). He still was all out to edge the uninspiring Blazing Sevens, who’s 1-for-7 in stakes and 0-for-5 around two turns.
National Treasure (2-for-10 lifetime) has trained brilliantly at Santa Anita, and Bob Baffert excels at getting a horse to peak for a marquee race. But he’ll have company up front, and both his wins were wire to wire. Looks like a bad favorite.
Skippylongstocking
Like his trainer, Saffie Joseph Jr., Gulfstream is this improved 5-year-old’s track. He’s won three times there and likes 1 1/8 miles (3-for-7, $1.08 million). Too bad he drew post 12, because he’ll have to work hard early to be on or near the lead, which is where he does his best work. Should be in the mix before weakening a bit late.
First Mission
You can’t find a hole in the five-race resume of a colt who’s a nose away from being 4-for-4 going two turns. Like National Treasure, he’s turned in three consecutive strong works, including two bullets, for Brad Cox at Fair Grounds. Unlike National Treasure, lightly raced First Mission still has lots of upside.
A stalker with tactical speed and strong late-pace figures, First Mission can lay close to the frontrunners and make his move in the upper stretch. Sounds like a winning formula.
The picks:
1First Mission 2 Skippylongstocking 3 National Treasure 4 Trademark
| 1 | Nimitz Class | 20-1 | George Weaver | Edgard J. Zayas |
| 2 | O’Connor | 8-1 | Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. | Paco Lopez |
| 3 | Dynamic One | 15-1 | Todd A. Pletcher | Irad Ortiz, Jr. |
| 4 | Hoist The Gold | 12-1 | Dallas Stewart | John R. Velazquez |
| 5 | Trademark | 12-1 | Victoria H. Oliver | Fernando De La Cruz |
| 6 | Senor Buscador | 6-1 | Todd W. Fincher | Junior Alvarado |
| 7 | National Treasure | 9-5 | Bob Baffert | Flavien Prat |
| 8 | First Mission | 7-2 | Brad H. Cox | Luis Saez |
| 9 | Grand Aspen | 8-1 | Todd A. Pletcher | Jose L. Ortiz |
| 10 | Il Miracolo | 20-1 | Antonio Sano | Javier Castellano |
| 11 | Crupi | 20-1 | Todd A. Pletcher | Lanfranco Dettori |
| 12 | Skippylongstocking | 8-1 | Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. | Tyler Gaffalione |
| 13 | Castle Chaos | AE | Robert N. Falcone, Jr. | Tyler Gaffalione |