And here we go again! The Belmont Stakes (G1), the final leg of the Triple Crown, is Saturday at Saratoga Race Course.
It’s the first time the Belmont is being held at the Spa, the iconic track in upstate New York, and the distance has been shortened to 1 ¼ miles from 1 ½ miles to conform to the different track configuration.
Sierra Leone. Coady Photo.
2024 Belmont Stakes Picks: Why Sierra Leone is the Favorite Among Handicappers
Trying to use Belmont history to pick winners may not work as well in the 156th edition due to site and distance, but let it be known that longshots rule in the 21st Century even though favorites came through in four of the last six runnings.
Nonetheless, the US Racing Team of handicappers at usracing.com has put in the research, and studied the past performances, and here are the results: four of the seven handicappers are going with Derby runner-up Sierra Leone to win. Trained by Chad Brown, the bay colt purchased for $2.3 million, is two noses away from being 5-for-5. He’s got new equipment to help keep him running straight, and a new rider in Flavien Prat.
Sierra Leone, second by a nose in the Derby to Mystik Dan in a three-horse photo finish, is the 9-5 morning-line favorite, with new shooter Mindframe (2-for-2 by a combined 21 ¼ lengths) the 7-2 second choice, Derby winner Mystik Dan 5-1, and Preakness winner Seize the Grey is 8-1.
Five points were awarded for first place, three for second, and one for third. Sierra Leone picked up 27 points – three first-place picks and four second-place picks; Mystik Dan was next with 13 points, followed by Mindframe with 10 points. Also receiving the win nods are Seize the Grey and Resilience.
Comments from the Sierra Leone camp:
“The best – and most expensive – will rise to the top,’’ says Trackenstein.
The Whiz: Sierra Leone is a deep closer and also had five weeks to rest from Derby to Belmont.
The Professor is going for Mindframe: “We are taking a gamble on potential over experience. Mindframe has been brilliant in winning his two races. It’s a tough spot for a stakes debut, but then — no guts, no glory.”
Mr. Tout likes Peter Pan Stakes (G3) winner Resilience: “Had an impossible post (18) for a stalker in the Derby but still made an impressive wide move to be second on the stretch turn before fading to sixth. His flying finish in recent workout suggests he’s very sharp and may be ready to peak at big odds.”
Mystik Dan was not ignored.
“The Derby winner likes this distance, and his Preakness was a winning race, if not for Seize the Grey. [Jaime] Torres won’t let that winner get away on the front end that easy this time,’’ says HorseCents.
Here are the selections:
CaptainMorgan: 1 Seize the Gray 2 Sierra Leone 3 The Wine Steward
Trackenstein: 1 Sierra Leone 2 Mystik Dan 3 Mindframe
Mr. Tout: 1 Resilience 2 Sierra Leone 3 Mindframe
The Professor: 1 Mindframe 2 Sierra Leone 3 Mystik Dan
HorseCents: 1 Mystik Dan 2 Sierra Leone 3 Seize the Grey
Racingfor$: 1 Sierra Leone 2 Mindframe 3 Mystik Dan
The Whiz: 1 Sierra Leone 2 Mystik Dan 3 Honor Marie
Good luck!