The final weekend of the Belmont at the Big A meet features two Grade 1 grass stakes, the $750,000 Belmont Derby Invitational for 3-year-olds and the $500,000 Belmont Oaks Invitational for 3-year-old fillies, both at 1 3/16 miles on Aqueduct’s outer turf.
Dwyer, John A. Nerud stakes also on the card
This year’s Belmont Stakes was cut back from 1½ miles to 1¼ miles because of the configuration of Saratoga’s smaller main track. For that same reason, Saturday’s grass stakes will be a sixteenth of a mile shorter than they were last year at expansive Belmont Park.
Despite the purses and Grade 1 designations, neither race drew a standout. The Derby drew only five runners, and no Grade 1 winner. The nine-filly Oaks has four with Grade 1 or Group 1 experience, but only She Feels Pretty has won at the top level.
There’s also a pair of $200,000 dirt stakes on the card: the 1-mile Dwyer (G3) for 3-year-olds (Domestic Product is the 6-5 favorite in a field of four) and the 7-furlong John A. Nerud (G2) for 4-year-olds and up (Mullikin is the 2-1 favorite in a field of five).
Belmont Derby, Oaks, horse-by-horse analysis
For those who bet horse racing, maybe this horse-by-horse analysis will help you put the pieces together. Runners are listed by post position from the rail out, with odds in parentheses.
$500,000 BELMONT DERBY (Race 6, post 3:08 p.m. ET)
1. LEGEND OF TIME (5-2)
Trainer: Charlie Appleby
Jockey: William Buick
Closed well off a slow pace to edge Derby rival White Palamino by a head last out in Big A’s Grade 2, 1 1/8-mile Pennine Ridge. He’s 5-for-7 on grass but only 1-for-3 in graded stakes; ran fifth last month to Trikari, whom he’ll face Saturday.
2. WHITE PALOMINO (5-1)
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Caught by Legend of Time after setting very slow pace, and speed figures aren’t impressive. Only win came at the distance, and Brown-Prat is a lethal combination. Still, others look better.
3. ROYAL MAJESTY (6-1)
Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Third last time behind Legend of Time and White Palomino, and 0-for-2, beaten a combined five lengths, in stakes. Seems up against it.
4. TRIKARI (7-2)
Trainer: Graham Motion
Jockey: John Velazquez
Has the best early-pace figures, and nobody’s better at nursing a speed horse than position-conscious Johnny V. Catch him to win.
5. ENDLESSLY (6-5)
Trainer: Michael McCarthy
Jockey: Umberto Rispoli
Returns to his best surface after failed experiment in the Kentucky Derby. Throw out that race because the owner pressured McCarthy to run in it. Won two stakes on synthetic after going 3-for-4 at 2 on grass. Strong closer looks very tough.
The picks: 1 Endlessly 2 Trikari 3 Legend of Time
$500,000 BELMONT OAKS INVITATIONAL (race 9, post 4:42 p.m.)
1. PIN UP BETTY (10-1)
Trainer: Mike Maker
Jockey: Jose Lezcano
Pulled mild upset in Grade 3 Regret after breaking her maiden in grass debut in eighth start. Weak figures; can’t recommend.
2. DYNAMIC PRICING (5-1)
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Rallied to take Grade 2 Edgewood last out at Churchill Downs, and third finisher came back to win a stakes last Saturday. Serious contender.
3. FUN WITH FLAGS (10-1)
Trainer: Jerome Reynier
Jockey: Manny Franco
French shipper has won going 1¼ but has run only on very soft courses. Dangerous if she can handle firm turf but lost her last at 3-5 odds to horse who’d won only once. Mixed signals.
4. BUCHU (10-1)
Trainer: Philip Bauer
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Talented but inconsistent closer runs big or doesn’t fire. Shouldn’t have lost last time to 1-for-8 Pin Up Betty. She’s 2-for-2 in stakes at Keeneland, 0-for-3 elsewhere. Needs fast pace she probably won’t get.
5. SECRET SATIRE (8-1)
Trainer: Andrew Balding
Jockey: Frankie Dettori
Toss her flop in Epsom Oaks on soft ground she hated. Easily won her previous race, a 1 5/16-mile Grade 3 at York, and a return to that form would make her very tough. Must respect.
6. SEGESTA (6-1)
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Speed numbers unimpressive, but Chad has won this race six times, so you can’t throw out recent Grade 2 winner over the course. Let the price be your guide.
7. SHE FEELS PRETTY (2-1)
Trainer: Cherie DeVaux
Jockey: John Velazquez
She’s a half-length away from being 2-for-2 in Grade 1’s and 4-for-4 on grass. Obvious favorite after 5¾-length runaway at Pimlico. The horse to beat.
8. CINDERELLA’S DREAM (9-2)
Trainer: Charlie Appleby
Jockey: William Buick
Was 4-for-4 before running seventh in Group 1 English One Thousand Guineas. Don’t hold that loss against her. Great distance pedigree, and the main threat to She Feels Pretty.
9. SY B (15-1)
Trainer: Cherie DeVaux
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Broke maiden going 1 3/16 miles at Keeneland. Can stay distance but outclassed on paper