If you’re looking for a long shot in the Belmont Stakes, you have a pretty good chance of cashing in if the past quarter-century is any indication.
Then again, there’s a whole different look to the 156th Belmont Stakes on June 8. It’s the final leg of the Triple Crown and will be run at Saratoga Race Course for the first time and at 1 ¼ miles rather than the traditional 1 ½ miles at Belmont Park, which is being rebuilt.
Saratoga. Chelsea Durand/Coglianese Photo
Average $2 win bet payoff: $26.70 from 2000-2023
Nonetheless, we’ll let the numbers speak: From 2000-2023, a $2 win bet returned an average of $26.70 — a $5 win bet returned $66.75, a $20 win bet returned $267, and a $100 win bet returned $1,335.
A look at the past 24 winning Belmont horses shows three of the last four, and four of the last six favorites have won. So, beware of this most recent trend. But from 2000-2017, just three favorites have won.
Longshot Winners: Sarava, Birdstone, Da’ Tara
Will the favorite’s trend continue with Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Mystik Dan and Preakness Stakes (G1) winner Seize the Grey in the field?
Or …
The longshot winners are topped by 70-1 Sarava in 2002, the year Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner War Emblem stumbled at the start and finished eighth in his Triple Crown bid.
Sarava was trained by Ken McPeek, who plans to send out Mystik Dan in next Saturday’s Belmont. Sarava returned $142.50 on a $2 win bet – a Belmont Stakes record; Mystik Dan will be among the favorites.
Other huge payouts involved Triple Crown bids.
In 2008, Derby-Preakness winner Big Brown was pulled up around the final turn as Da’ Tara won at 38-1 odds and returned $79 on a $2 win bet.
In 2004, Derby-Preakness winner Smarty Jones was edged by Birdstone, a 36-1 longshot who returned $74 on a $2 win bet.
In 2011, Ruler on Ice, at 24-1 ($51.50), topped Derby winner Animal Kingdom and Preakness winner Shackleford.
Winning Belmont favorites include Triple Crown champions American Pharoah in 2015, Justify in 2018, and most recently Arcangelo ($17.80) last year.
Belmont Stakes Winners (2000-2023), with odds, $2 win bet payout:
2023: Arcangelo (7-1), $17.80
2022: Mo Donegal (5-2), $7.20
2021: Essential Quality (8-5), $4.60
2020: Tiz the Law (4-5), $3.60
2019: Sir Winston (10-1), $22.40
2018: Justify (4-5), $7.60
2017: Tapwrit (5-1), $12.60
2016: Creator (16-1), $34.80
2015: American Pharoah (1-2), $3.50
2014: Tonalist (9-1), $20.40
2013: Palace Malice (13-1), $29.40
2012: Union Rags (11-4), $7.50
2011: Ruler on Ice (24-1), $51.50
2010: Drosselmeyer (13-1), $29
2009: Summer Bird (11-1), $25.80
2008: Da’ Tara (37-1), $79
2007: Rags to Riches (4-1), $10.60
2006: Jazil (6-1), $14.40
2005: Afleet Alex (6-5), $4.30
2004: Birdstone (36-1), $74
2003: Empire Maker (2-1), $6
2002: Sarava (70-1), $142.50
2001: Point Given (7-4), $4.70
2000: Commendable (18-1), $39.60